Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,313
2 New Jersey 19,370
3 Rhode Island 15,707
4 Massachusetts 15,645
5 District of Columbia 14,394
6 Connecticut 12,900
7 Louisiana 11,514
8 Delaware 11,275
9 Illinois 11,121
10 Maryland 10,982
11 Nebraska 9,484
12 Arizona 8,696
13 Iowa 8,679
14 Mississippi 8,237
15 South Dakota 7,323
16 Virginia 7,023
17 Michigan 6,925
18 Pennsylvania 6,891
19 Alabama 6,772
20 Indiana 6,651
21 Georgia 6,385
22 Utah 6,096
23 Minnesota 6,056
24 Arkansas 5,985
25 South Carolina 5,636
26 Tennessee 5,519
27 North Carolina 5,486
28 Colorado 5,463
29 New Mexico 5,337
30 Florida 5,308
31 California 5,097
32 Nevada 4,840
33 Texas 4,717
34 Wisconsin 4,539
35 Kansas 4,533
36 North Dakota 4,464
37 Washington 4,202
38 New Hampshire 4,146
39 Ohio 4,076
40 Kentucky 3,311
41 Missouri 3,271
42 Oklahoma 3,019
43 Idaho 2,724
44 Wyoming 2,291
45 Maine 2,283
46 Puerto Rico 2,153
47 Vermont 1,908
48 Oregon 1,795
49 West Virginia 1,503
50 Alaska 1,327
51 Montana 751
52 Hawaii 590

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 390
2 Mississippi 249
3 Louisiana 227
4 Arkansas 218
5 South Carolina 215
6 Florida 214
7 Texas 197
8 Alabama 187
9 Georgia 159
10 Utah 156
11 Nevada 144
12 California 141
13 Iowa 123
14 Tennessee 119
15 North Carolina 117
16 Idaho 112
17 Oklahoma 102
18 New Jersey 98
19 New Mexico 79
20 Kansas 72
21 Missouri 72
22 Wisconsin 71
23 Washington 68
24 Nebraska 67
25 Maryland 65
26 Illinois 61
27 Ohio 60
28 South Dakota 57
29 Virginia 57
30 Rhode Island 56
31 Wyoming 55
32 Delaware 54
33 Kentucky 53
34 Minnesota 53
35 Indiana 52
36 District of Columbia 47
37 Alaska 46
38 Colorado 44
39 Pennsylvania 40
40 Oregon 38
41 North Dakota 36
42 Michigan 33
43 New York 32
44 Puerto Rico 32
45 Massachusetts 30
46 Maine 24
47 West Virginia 22
48 Montana 21
49 Connecticut 19
50 New Hampshire 19
51 Vermont 14
52 Hawaii 7

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,674
2 New York 1,595
3 Connecticut 1,205
4 Massachusetts 1,155
5 Rhode Island 868
6 District of Columbia 769
7 Louisiana 680
8 Michigan 614
9 Illinois 554
10 Delaware 520
11 Maryland 517
12 Pennsylvania 515
13 Indiana 384
14 Mississippi 341
15 Colorado 289
16 New Hampshire 262
17 Minnesota 255
18 Georgia 254
19 Ohio 237
20 New Mexico 231
21 Iowa 222
22 Arizona 205
23 Virginia 196
24 Alabama 182
25 Washington 170
26 Missouri 163
27 Nevada 160
28 Florida 154
29 California 147
30 Nebraska 137
31 South Carolina 134
32 Wisconsin 131
33 Kentucky 127
34 North Carolina 124
35 North Dakota 114
36 South Dakota 98
37 Oklahoma 94
38 Kansas 90
39 Vermont 89
40 Tennessee 81
41 Texas 80
42 Arkansas 79
43 Maine 76
44 Utah 51
45 West Virginia 51
46 Idaho 50
47 Oregon 47
48 Puerto Rico 47
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 19
51 Alaska 13
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 74
2 Delaware 24
3 Arizona 6
4 Rhode Island 5
5 Massachusetts 4
6 Mississippi 4
7 New Hampshire 4
8 Alabama 3
9 Connecticut 3
10 District of Columbia 3
11 Georgia 3
12 Illinois 3
13 Louisiana 3
14 Maryland 3
15 Pennsylvania 3
16 California 2
17 Florida 2
18 New Mexico 2
19 South Carolina 2
20 South Dakota 2
21 Virginia 2
22 Arkansas 1
23 Colorado 1
24 Indiana 1
25 Iowa 1
26 Kentucky 1
27 Michigan 1
28 Minnesota 1
29 Missouri 1
30 Nebraska 1
31 New York 1
32 North Carolina 1
33 North Dakota 1
34 Ohio 1
35 Tennessee 1
36 Texas 1
37 Washington 1
38 Wisconsin 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Hawaii 0
41 Idaho 0
42 Kansas 0
43 Maine 0
44 Montana 0
45 Nevada 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 130,362 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,347 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 87,936 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 85,474 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 79,545 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 12,453 220 92
Richland South Carolina 7,110 536 82
Orange California 3,717 1078 65
York South Carolina 3,370 1168 62
Pierce Washington 2,993 1291 58

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,517 5 99
Richland South Carolina 192 672 78
Davidson Tennessee 148 797 74
Pierce Washington 107 977 68
Orange California 96 1036 67
York South Carolina 43 1490 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons